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Background: Over 10-years of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Birmingham presents an opportunity to explore epidemiological trends and risk factors for transmission in new detail. Methods: Between 1st January 2009 and 15th June 2019, we obtained the first WGS isolate from every patient resident in a postcode district covered by Birmingham's centralised tuberculosis service. Data on patients' sex, country of birth, social risk-factors, anatomical locus of disease, and strain lineage were collected. Poisson harmonic regression was used to assess seasonal variation in case load and a mixed-effects multivariable Cox proportionate hazards model was used to assess risk factors for a future case arising in clusters defined by a 5 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) threshold, and by 12 SNPs in a sensitivity analysis. Findings: 511/1653 (31%) patients were genomically clustered with another. A seasonal variation in diagnoses was observed, peaking in spring, but only among clustered cases. Risk-factors for a future clustered case included UK-birth (aHR=2·03 (95%CI 1·35-3·04), p 

Original publication

DOI

10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100361

Type

Journal article

Journal

Lancet Reg Health Eur

Publication Date

06/2022

Volume

17

Keywords

Epidemiology, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Seasonality, Transmission, Whole genome sequencing