Analysis of a risk-based model for the growth of AIDS infection.
De Young G., Maini PK., Nakamaye M.
Several models for the spread of AIDS within a homosexual community have been proposed that incorporate biased mixing of different risk groups. A simple model is presented that captures many of the features of these more complex models. Analytical expressions are derived for the time to the state of maximum infection (SMI) in a particular risk group, the proportion infected at SMI, and the number of infected individuals as the group approaches SMI. These results agree qualitatively with numerical simulations of the model.